Edo 2012: Between Numerical Strength And Political Strategy

HOW TRUE IS THIS MY PEOPLE?

As the Edo governorship election draws nearer, EDEGBE ODEMWINGIE reports on the quintessence of an emerging attitude to the highly anticipated election slated for July 14, 2012 which indicates that most Binis are insisting that their numerical advantage must be exploited to produce one of their own as the next governor of the state.
If democracy is truely a game of numbers, it follows that in a free and fair election, any candidate who has more supporters than his fellow competitors should win the election. So if rallying ones ethnic base will give him the edge over others, it doesn’t make it myopic or narrow to rely on such strength in order to emerge victorious. This could be a potent strategy deployed worldwide to win elections.
In the build up towards the July 14, governorship election in Edo state, the ruling Action Congress of Nigeria’s (ACN) fields incumbent Governor Adams Oshiomhole who will lock horns with Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) candidate, Major General (Rtd) Charles Airhiavbere. In the face of this gathering storm is a curious angle steadily seeping into the equation which is the brewing ethnic sentiment that is taking centre stage in the contest.
The Binis, a clear majority among ethnicities that make up Edo state, are now saying that the governorship seat must return to its fold after being on the sidelines in the last four years, with the exit of Lucky Igbinedion. In addition to not having the governorship, the Binis do not have any political office holder at the national level. Therefore, they see the governorship election, this time around, as their only prize -- at least this is the sentiment currently being echoed in many quarters. And they have found a rallying point in the PDP candidate for the realization of their desire.
The case of Edo state remains a curious one. Even when it has an ethnic group in clear majority, it has still given room for people from minority ethnic groups to assume leadership, either through military fiat (George Agabazika Innih in 1976/1977) or through election (Ambrose Folorunso Alli in 1979-1983; Oserheimen Osunbor, 2007-2008; and Adams Oshiomhole, 2008 to date.
This is in sharp contrast to states like Benue and Kogi, where the Tivs and Igalas respectively hold sway, no matter what.
In Kogi where the Ebiras contest, the Igalas majority claims, the latter has still continued to win at the ballots the governorship seat. The same applies with the Idomas and Tivs in Benue -- the Tivs will continue to occupy the governorship seat as long as ethnic numerical strength comes in to play.
What it indicts, is that the Binis are quite large-hearted. The case of Edo state punctures all political analysis. But it is obvious that there is a strong demand for power shift in Edo state, to compensate for the tendency to sideline the Binis when it comes to federal political appointments.
“The Binis need to go back to the drawing board and re-examine their political interest and their strategies and locate where their interest lies,” says Iyobosa Uwugiaren, writing in his widely reviewed column in LEADERSHIP, under the caption ‘The Binis and Dirty propaganda’. He notes: “The coming election provides a huge opportunity for them. The social problems that are pronounced today in the state, especially in Edo south, have been linked to lack of economic and political empowerment at the state and federal level.”
It has not always been like that for the Binis in Edo state. In 1999 when Nigeria returned to democratic governance after a long rule by the military, the governorship of Edo state fell on Lucky Igbinedion, a Bini man.
Analysts have severally deflated views bandied by some supporters of the ACN that Igbinedion’s tenure as governor were a wasteful term as a basis for insisting that another Bini person has no moral right to aspire to the seat in the coming election. They describe such views as a mere propaganda.
The Binis further argues that, apart from the issue of their current marginalization from political power at state and national level, they have other reasons to re-examine their position, one of such reasons is that despite their support for Oshiomhole, they have not forgotten the bitter pills they swallowed from Etsako people. The late General Agbazika Innih, Military Governor of the old Bendel state under the General Murtala Mohammed regime, was particularly anti-Bini, to the extent that he tried to rope General Samuel Ogbemudia into the 1976 abortive military coup led by the later executed Lt. Col. Buka Suka Dimka. Ogbemudia was only lucky to escape execution. In fact, the present Oba Erediauwa, then Prince Solomon Akenzua, quit the Innih cabinet in protest against the attempt to smear Binis over the coup.
Roland Owie, Senator for Edo South in 1999-2003, painted a very graphic picture of Innih’s anti-Bini actions, including the assault on other prominent Binis during his tenure, in Sunday Vanguard of April 8. According to the former lawmaker, going forward, the Binis have two things riding for them – the monarch and its population.
At the time of Innih’s anti-Bini actions, there was no evidence that the Etsako intelligentsia called him to order.
“Bini people are smart enough to see through Oshiomhole’s strategy of overzealously courting the Benin monarch,” notes a politician. “The decision of the Otaru of Auchi to mobilise Edo north traditional rulers behind Oshiomhole is also bound to backfire. As history has shown, it is dangerous for traditional rulers to dabble into politics so brazenly. Traditional rulers in Edo central and Edo south are bound to frown at the development and then take their own position.”
There is also the fear that, once he secures re-election, it is not beyond Oshiomhole to turn against those who provide the ladder for his rise, including the Palace. “Did he not turn against the labour movement in Edo State?” poses George Daudu, a community leader. “What is the relationship between him and the Labour Party today? Did he not flirt with Chief Anenih? Did he not go back to Ogbemudia after initially humiliating the revered ex-Governor only because he saw immense potential in using him to destabilize PDP?”
To buttress his use-and-dump propensity, his critics are insinuating that the Igbinedions and Oshiomhole have since parted ways, with the Governor whispering to those around him: “Have I not settled them?” when the family makes demands as per the terms of their funding of his election.
Opponents have also pointed at another pastime of Oshiomhole -- using his propaganda machinery to destroy prominent Binis. In particular former Minister of State for Works, Chris Ogiemwonyi, who is very close to the Oba was purported to have been “banned” from the Palace for non-performance!
In the same vein, while Oshiomhole’s achievements are visible, there is popular belief among critics that they are carefully arranged to catch the eye. “They are mostly urban based,” insists Godfrey Imaghodor, a transporter. “So, rural people are not as fanatical about these achievements as city dwellers. Also, the projects are lop-sided in favour of Etsako, his Local Government Area (LGA) and Benin City, the capital.”
Indeed, Oshiomhole has tacitly admitted to the charge of favouritism in the location of projects. “Development has eluded my people (Edo north) and when I came, I decided from day one that I would take development to my people,” he told newsmen on a project inspection tour. While he has delivered on his promise in spectacular fashion, critics are questioning the rationale for concentrating 70 per cent of Edo state infrastructural projects – roads, electricity, water – on Edo north (less than 15 per cent voter’s power), mostly in Etsako.
Having made great efforts to please the Oba of Benin, he deludes himself into believing that the Oba will support him against any opposition. “But that is a dangerous assumption,” says Smart Aigbeghian, a political scientist of Bini extraction. “As a rule, the Oba supports anybody who seeks his blessing. When the time comes to cast his lot with anyone, it is inconceivable that he will prefer Oshiomhole over a true son of his soil (Airhiavbere of the PDP whose father was a Palace chief). Indeed, it is the Bini people who will make the choice for him.”
On the frequently orchestrated endorsement of Oshiomhole by Ogbemudia, Aigbeghian says this serves the needs of propaganda, but notes that “it is very unlikely to translate into Bini votes,” wondering “How can Ogbemudia fail to support Airhiavbere, a fellow ex-military officer and kinsman?”
By the same token, the so-called support by prominent Bini chiefs for Oshiomhole has come to serious scrutiny. For example, it is now known that Chief David Edebiri, the Esogban of Benin, who is touted as one of his staunchest supporters, is not doing anything gratis – three of his sons are known to hold key positions in Oshiomhole’s administration! Already, Binis are feeling short-changed, because many of them are unable to secure even the most menial of jobs for their children.
Away from ethnic sentiments, common people are interrogating the Oshiomhole approach in terms of priorities and scoring him low on rural development.
“The Bini part of Edo State remains the most impoverished,” says Aigbeghina, who recalls that a few years ago, a survey showed that, outside those domiciled in Benin City, and majority children from the old Orhionmwon LGA (present Orhionmwon and Uhunmwode LGAs) were unable to pass entrance examinations into high school.
Edokpolor, a teacher, asks rhetorically: “What has been done to combat the factors leading to such weak educational indices? How does dualization of Airport Road affect the life of a peasant farmer at Egbokor?”
Of course, Oshiomhole’s ability to reach out to and oftentimes exploit certain groups and eminent persons within the state has helped largely to ensure his reasonable influence on happenings in the state. Indeed, comes July, Oshiomhole has many questions to answer. But what is clear is that there is now a huge current of sentiments among the Binis that they must use what they have to get one of their own into Osadebey Drive.